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April 2020

A Cirque-us Around Mount Washington

A Cirque-us Around Mount Washington

2020-04-20 13:42:40.000 – AJ Grimes, Weather Observer

 

Continuing on last week’s theme of extreme ice, let’s talk about glaciers! If you’ve ever gone skiing at Tuckerman Ravine or climbing at Huntington Ravine, you may have wondered what force created these spectacular formations. Or, perhaps you’ve stood at the crest of the Gulfside Trail and wondered at the Great Gulf. Would you believe that there used to be massive ice sheets there that carved these awe-inspiring sights?

 

View of Mount Washington from Wildcat Mountain, with Tuckerman Ravine on the left and Huntington Ravine on the right.

Each of these formations is a glacial cirque: a geologic formation that occurs when glaciers carve out an amphitheater-like valley.* The headwall is the highest boundary; two other cliffs encircle the basin. A lip, the lowest side, offers an outflow path. Snow accumulates and packs in this basin, and a glacier develops. Through a few different processes, the area is then scraped down. Erosion happens as the glacier moves, rotates, wears through and mechanically abrades, and breaks off pieces of bedrock (called “plucking”). Also, freeze-thaw weathering can occur when water enters into cracks and faults in a surface, expands with freezing, then melts and contracts, thus weakening the bedrock. This is similar to what happens on roads, resulting in ice heaves and potholes, something I am sure all New Englanders are familiar with. When the glacier finally melts, it leaves behind this amphitheater-shaped valley.

 

Looking into Tuckerman Ravine from above.

Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines are two of the most famous cirques surrounding Mount Washington, but a few others might catch your eye when you visit: Oakes Gulf, Gulf of Slides, Ammonoosuc Ravine, and of course, the Great Gulf.

 

The view into the Great Gulf from the Gulfside Trail.

While this might seem surprising, the height of Mount Washington allowed for it to retain its glacial cover for longer than nearby areas – it was under glacial ice 15,000-20,000 years ago. Additionally, the makeup of the bedrock is more easily eroded and “plucked”. As a result, Mount Washington is an excellent place to see a number of magnificent cirques!

*While arguments have been made that continental glaciers contributed to the local geography of the mountain, the sharp sides of Tuckerman Ravine and Huntington Ravine are believed to be evidence of an additional process involving local glacier formation and recession.

 

AJ Grimes, Weather Observer

Amazing Glaze!

Amazing Glaze!

2020-04-13 12:34:08.000 – AJ Grimes, Weather Observer

 

Early April.  Astronomical and meteorological Spring.  In the valleys below, birds are fluttering in the trees, crickets are chirping in the woods, and new life is beginning to emerge from the ground.  However, as weather observers and those familiar with Mount Washington know, winter still has the summit firmly in its frozen grip.  On April 3rd, the observers on the summit battled one of the most intense icing events of the current winter season, resulting in some stunning photos and helping to illustrate why the Observatory needs to be manned throughout the year to maintain its operations. 

This particular event actually began on April 2nd, with light snow beginning just after midnight.  Snow lasted throughout the entire day, with rime ice also coating everything on the summit in typical winter fashion.  However, once again around midnight, things were about to change.  As the wind direction started to shift slightly to the east, warmer temperatures aloft allowed the snow to switch to a messy mix of freezing rain and ice pellets (sleet).  Instead of the light, feathery, and relatively-easy-to-remove rime ice formations, these types of precipitation form hard glaze ice.  Glaze is one of the least-enjoyed weather phenomena among observers.  Not only does it make it treacherous to navigate outside, but it can be very difficult to adequately remove from our instrumentation.  

 

The instrument tower coated in glaze ice.

During normal winter conditions, observers typically go to the top of the tower to de-ice our instrumentation once per hour, usually right before taking an observation.  On this day, the glazing was so severe that observers were going outside every 15-30 minutes to smash thick layers of ice off the wind vane and anemometers.  At one point, it was estimated that around 8 inches of ice was accumulating per hour! 

The top of the instrument tower and pitot anemometer prior to de-icing.

The Stevenson screen, or “thermoshack”, which houses several of our thermometers.

These extreme conditions were due to a combination of constant freezing rain and sleet, high winds, and moisture-laden air from the east that resulted in dense, wet fog.  Some of the pieces of ice had grown to over 2 feet in length, forcing the observers to be exceptionally careful and mindful of their positioning while removing the ice in strong winds. 

A massive chunk of ice on the instrument tower, with a glove for scale.

These photos help illustrate why the Mount Washington Observatory is still a manned weather station in a time when many weather stations have transitioned to automatic or semi-automatic status. Without the enormous efforts of the observers on duty, the relentless accretion of ice would have frozen our instruments in place and likely caused damage to the systems. It would not be possible to record accurate data on a day like this without manual intervention. The hardy team of observers remain on the summit to battle the elements because we truly do see some of the worst weather conditions in the world. 

 

AJ Grimes, Weather Observer

The 86th Anniversary of the “Big Wind”

The 86th Anniversary of the “Big Wind”

2020-04-10 15:57:06.000 – Eric Kelsey, MWO Lead Research Scientist

 

Eighty-six years ago, five men holed-up in a small wooden structure atop Mount Washington contemplated the question, “Will they believe it?”

These five men, alongside three cats and a litter of five kittens less than a week old, witnessed the fastest wind speed ever recorded on Earth: 231 mph.

The storm that came through on that historic day, 12 April 1934, surprised everyone with its incredible power. The skies just two days before were crystal clear and the winds were unusually light. Around sunset offered the first harbinger of the storm to come: reddish cirrus clouds to the west and a pair of sundogs. Those cirrus clouds were advancing eastward from an extratropical cyclone of moderate intensity tracking eastward through the Great Lakes. On 11 April, it moved into southern Canada while a stronger secondary low developed off the mid-Atlantic coast. Concurrently, a high pressure center retreating northeastward from Maine into the Canadian Maritimes also strengthened and became stationary over Labrador, which increased the pressure gradient between the coastal low and the high.

Sea-level pressure analysis valid 9:00 a.m. EST on 12 April 1934 just hours before the 231 mph gust. A low pressure system centered just south of New England intensified and tracked slowly northwestward during the day. From the U.S. Weather Bureau (now the National Weather Service).Figure 1: Sea-level pressure analysis valid 9:00 a.m. EST on 12 April 1934 just hours before the 231 mph gust. A low pressure system centered just south of New England intensified and tracked slowly northwestward during the day. From the U.S. Weather Bureau (now the National Weather Service).

 A third feature became involved and may have been the critical disturbance to intensify the summit winds to over 200 mph. A weak low pressure system just northwest of Bermuda tracked northwestward and was absorbed by the developing coastal cyclone south of New England. The merging of these two cyclones increased the strength of its circulation and the southeast winds to its north across New England. With the blocking high pressure over Labrador preventing the typical northeast advancement of the cyclone, the pressure gradient tightened across New England and produced over 24 hours of winds over 100 mph at the summit Mount Washington. The “Heated Number 2” anemometer that recorded the record-breaking winds was fortuitously positioned to measure the full, uninhibited force of the winds on the southeast side of the summit.

The Heated Number 1 (left) and Heated Number 2 (right) atop of the Mount Washington Carriage Road Stage Office roof.Figure 2: The Heated Number 1 (left) and Heated Number 2 (right) atop of the Mount Washington Carriage Road Stage Office roof.

 Sal Pagliuca, Alex McKenzie, and Wendell Stephenson (“Steve”) were the three Mount Washington Observatory (MWO) Observers who were on the summit that day. Sal invited two close friends to the summit too, Arthur Griffin, an artist and photographer, and George Leslie. Around 4 a.m. on the morning of 12 April, Steve awoke to a loud shuttering sound of the building that he had never heard before. He checked the speed indicated by the recorder trace, about 105 mph, and knew that the winds were much faster than that. He realized that rime ice must be accreting around the anemometer. While the rest of the team slept, Steve went outside with a wooden club and climbed a ladder to the roof of the building to deice in winds exceeding 150 mph!

Figure 3: MWO Observers Alexander McKenzie (left) and Sal Pagliuca (right) check the tension of the guy wires on the Heated Number 2 anemometer.Figure 3: MWO Observers Alexander McKenzie (left) and Sal Pagliuca (right) check the tension of the guy wires on the Heated Number 2 anemometer.
 
 
MWO Observer Wendell Stephenson is packed with gear and provisions at the bottom of the Mount Washington Carriage Road prior to ascending the mountain.Figure 4: MWO Observer Wendell Stephenson is packed with gear and provisions at the bottom of the Mount Washington Carriage Road prior to ascending the mountain.

Winds remained strong all morning. Because of this, McKenzie, the communications expert, decided to leave their radio transmitting across New England all day. Colleagues in Exeter, New Hampshire and at Blue Hill Observatory just south of Boston often listened and communicated to the MWO Observers. In the early afternoon is when the winds peaked. Sal, a former electrical engineer with General Electric, was the observer who timed the record wind gust. He used a stop watch to measure the time between the clicking sounds of the anemometer recording device, which made clicks every 1/10th mile of wind that blew by. He timed 1.17 seconds between clicks, and shouted the time twice so Arthur could write it down. With much anticipation they converted the time to a corrected wind speed of 231 mph!

Gusts of 231 mph were measured twice, and frequent gusts of 220 to 229 mph were also recorded. The fastest 5-minute average wind speed was an astonishing 188 mph.

Redundant measurements are critical for confidence and fidelity in scientific measurements, and Sal was not the only person recording the timing between clicks. During the event, the other observers took turns with the stop watch timing the click when the wind was screaming at over 150 mph. In addition, Dr. Charles Brooks, the first MWO President, professor at Harvard, and Director of Blue Hill Observatory, was timing the clicks he heard over the radio at Blue Hill during the hour leading up to the record wind gust. Everybody’s measurements were in close agreement and left no doubt that what they were witnessing was real.

Only a couple months later, the now famous Heated Number 2 anemometer was carefully transported off the mountain to the U.S. Weather Bureau headquarters in Washington, D.C. The Chief of the U.S. Weather Bureau (now the National Weather Service), Charles Marvin, performed tests on the anemometer to calibrate it and ensure it was still operating within acceptable tolerances. This calibration test was one of the last projects Marvin performed before retiring later that year after 22 years of work at the Weather Bureau. The calibration of the anemometer was very close to the calibration performed in November 1933; the Heated Number 2 spun about 3% slower than it did in November – possibly a sign of slight wear on the bearings. The fact that it spun slower implies that the actual wind speed during that infamous day may have actually topped 231 mph.

Charles Marvin, Chief of the U.S. Weather Bureau from 1913-1934, stands next to a triple register device similar to the one attached to the Heated Number 2.Figure 5: Charles Marvin, Chief of the U.S. Weather Bureau from 1913-1934, stands next to a triple register device similar to the one attached to the Heated Number 2.

 Charles Marvin stated in his documentation of the calibration test, “Great confidence is justified in the verity of these results…” Proper calibration procedures to validate the 231 mph wind speed record were followed perfectly. The anemometer was calibrated just 5 months before and 2 months after the record wind speed and careful attention were paid to the instrument during the storm to ensure it did not become encased in ice. Redundancy of the measurements of the high wind gusts by multiple people also lends the utmost confidence in the record. So, to answer the Observers’ question from that fateful day in 1934: “Yes, they believe it.”

 

Eric Kelsey, MWO Lead Research Scientist

Warm and Dry Feet in Spring

Warm and Dry Feet in Spring

2020-04-06 20:28:33.000 – Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

 

Mud season on the summit of Mount Washington isn’t as muddy as you would think. Because the summit is primarily composed of rocks and gravel frozen in snow and ice, when spring begins, it takes on the characteristics of a giant puddle. Add a warmer day when precipitation is in liquid form and trapped from running off the result is a parking lot sized, deep puddle formation. There isn’t much that we can do with the standing water and so it creates an obstacle in collecting the precipitation can. The good news is our feet stay dry.
 

Oboz Bridger Boots

 
Oboz are the Mount Washington Observatory’s footwear sponsor and as such, we are all outfitted with varying insulated winter boots. I myself have the Women’s Bridger. Besides being insulated, this boot also happens to be waterproof with Oboz B-Dry technology. B-Dry is a breathable bootie that is sewn in between the boot lining and the outer material. It allows your foot to breath, moving heat vapor (moisture and body heat) away through the micropores in the breathable B-Dry membrane. These same micropores in the membrane than restricts larger water droplets from entering the boot creating a waterproof layer. The B-Dry bootie encompasses the entirety of the foot and its height is determined by the height of the tongue gusset. On my Bridger boots this gusset sits about 5” from the ground.
 
So on days we have a large puddle forming it means I can wear my Bridger boots to keep warm and dry!
 

Oboz Bridger Boots submerged in ice water

 

Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

A Note About Our Afternoon Forecasts

A Note About Our Afternoon Forecasts

2020-04-03 16:22:08.000 – MWO Staff, Mount Washington Observatory

 

At this time, Mount Washington Observatory has decided to suspend our afternoon Higher Summit’s Forecast in both written and recorded forms. The decision has been made in an effort to discourage backcountry travel and support the closures of the backcountry areas. Our morning forecasts will still be provided, as this weather information is important to the general public’s use close to home, educational purposes, and decision making for valley entities. We look forward to resuming normal operations in the future and will keep you up to date with changes.
 
 
For additional information on backcountry closures you can reference: https://mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/access-prohibitions-on-mount-washington/
 
Screen shot of higher summits forecastNew Higher Summits Forecast intro

 

MWO Staff, Mount Washington Observatory

March 2020

Home of the World’s Worst Weather Live!

Home of the World’s Worst Weather Live!

2020-03-30 14:09:36.000 – Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

 

It’s nothing new that the Mount Washington Observatory is committed to education. In fact, part of our mission is to advance the understanding of the natural systems that create Earth’s weather and Climate. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic forcing schools to close nationwide we hit the drawing board to create a virtual classroom. Starting today, we are offering free distance learning programs three times a week to support educators in providing remote learning opportunities from the “Home of the World’s Worst Weather”.

Utilizing Facebook Live, students can join “Home of the Worst Weather Live” three days a week. Every Monday, Tuesday and Thursday at 11:15am one of our Weather Observers or Staff members will present on a variety of topics. Monday’s we will focus on a special topic, while Tuesday’s and Thursday’s we will highlight the latest weather conditions and review the higher summits forecast. Each program will also include a Q&A session in real time. Concluding each live program, we will upload the sessions to our website at mountwashington.org/classroom so they can be viewed at any time. In addition to the programs, the site will also provide resources and activities related to the science of weather for use by students to explore further on their own.

 
 
 
Today’s program premier was kicked off by Weather Observer and Education Specialist Ian Bailey with a specialized focus on “An Introduction to Mount Washington and the Observatory”. For a kick off we had quite a few tuning in with some great questions from our viewers. Over the next few weeks we are looking forward to bringing Mount Washington into your home! We’ll discuss many different topics, including how to take Weather Observations, the different measurements/parameteres that are involved in that process, and so much more! Make sure you tune in with some good questions, and enjoy!
 
 

 

Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

METAR Code: How it led to a Unique Social Distancing Selfie

METAR Code: How it led to a Unique Social Distancing Selfie

2020-03-23 21:08:24.000 – Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

 

METAR: Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report
 
Every hour of every day the Mount Washington Observatory issues a METAR observation from the summit. It is these observations that get disseminated through the Aviation Digital Data Service. Yesterday was like any other day on the summit, but the weather being recorded precipitated into one of the more unique social distancing selfies. Let me explain…
 
Aviation and weather have been a large part of my life since I was a child. My father got his pilot’s license when I was only a few years old and I fondly remember flying with him. Being so young in an airplane, my Dad found cleaver ways to involve me in the process. I would walk beside him while he did the preflight inspection of the aircraft and read operations checklists out loud with him. However, my favorite thing we did together was de-code METAR and determine what the weather would be. The best of those weather days were called “CAVU” – Clear Above Visibility Unlimited. Between my Dad and I, “CAVU” became our little secret way of saying “have a good day” to one another. Written on the top of a napkin in my lunch box or scribbled on a note stuck in his briefcase. It was our little bonded message to each other. Needless to say it was through these interactions I developed a love for flying and a passion for the weather that has stuck with me to this day.
 
My junior and senior years in high school I was fortunate enough to attend BOCES Aviation Vocational Technical School where I inevitably earned my own pilot’s license. During this time my love of weather only grew as we learned about the atmosphere we flew through and the weather conditions that would influence our flights. This streamlined educational path fueled my passion and upon graduation I enrolled at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University where I studied meteorology at a highly focused aviation institution.
 
I quickly found my groove within the program and began working as a Tutor in the Aviation Lab teaching weather. Here I helped follow pilots understand the concept of weather patterns and their operational significance. In the lab a favorite station to pull the METAR from was KMWN – Mount Washington. With weather so unlike that found at an airport it was a great way to practice de-coding METAR out of the ordinary. Eventually when it came time apply for internships, Mount Washington was at the top of my list. The summer of 2010 I began an internship which would turn into so much more in my life.
 
After all the years of de-coding METAR with my Dad, using it for my own flights, and teaching it to other students, I finally arrived on the other side of the fence, coding METAR. Ten years later I find myself on the summit of Mount Washington recording the weather during a tough time in our existence. Feeling more isolated that usual I stepped out onto the observation deck to record the hourly observation.
 
KMWN 221949Z 00000KT 90SM SKC
KMWN: Station Identifier (Mount Washington)
221949Z: Date and Time (March 22nd 1949 ZULU)
00000KT: Wind Direction and Speed (Calm Winds)
SKC: Sky Condition (Clear)
 
This folks, is what a “CAVU” weather report looks like! Not to mention it being observed at the “Home of the World’s Worst Weather”! So once the observation was submitted, I called my Dad to share this “CAVU” day and this is where the Self Distancing Selfie was conspired.
 
Now my Dad lives just a few miles south of North Conway in an aviation community. One where everyone has their plane in their yard and all the streets are taxi ways lead to the central runway. I told my Dad about the “CAVU” weather and suggested he come for a visit. He could safely leave the house, get in the plane, and fly up to circle around the summit. Thirty minutes later, that’s just what he did!
 
I stood at the top of New England on a “CAVU” day while my Dad circled overhead rocking his wings at me. It was a once in a lifetime special moment bonded by four simple letters that made us feel closer than ever despite the distance we are all feeling. And this is how a METAR code turned into a unique social distancing selfie.
 
Rebecca Scholand taking a selfie with her dad flying behind herMy Selfie With My Father Flying Overhead

Rebecca Scholands fathers view as he was flying by the summitMy Father’s Point of View as He Flew Overhead

 

Rebecca Scholand, Summit Operations Manager

An Update on My Internship

An Update on My Internship

2020-03-08 15:38:00.000 – Eve Cinquino, Summit Intern

 

Intern Eve Cinquino here! I’m about half way through my time on the Rockpile, and it’s been an incredible experience so far. I’ve learned so much about weather forecasting (I studied physics in college, so I’ll happily talk to you about quantum mechanics, but I still don’t know the different types of clouds), experienced 100+ mph winds (did you see the video of me blowing around the deck the other day??), and gotten to know some really awesome people (and one very fluffy cat)! I’ve also been working on some really exciting research about mid-winter thaws on Mount Washington; stay tuned for updates on that towards the end of my internship!

In addition to all the important work we do here, we like to have fun when we can! I personally have been doing a lot of puzzles; here I am putting the final piece into a puzzle of Inga, one of the former summit cats:

(Shout out to the volunteer on that shift, Steve, without whom I would never have finished this!)

Last shift, I was able to sneak out of the office a little early and hike over to the neighboring peak of Monroe. It was really refreshing to get outside on a beautiful day—the winds were so calm I didn’t even need my goggles!

Seeing Mount Washington from this perspective, and being able to call it my home, even if it’s just for a few more weeks, was really special. As was hiking back up the mountain around sunset and not having to worry about hiking back down to the trailhead in the dark!

I’m usually pretty busy with work on the summit, but as soon as there’s another calm, high pressure day up here, you can be sure I’ll be heading out for another hike.

 

Eve Cinquino, Summit Intern

First Week on the Summit!

First Week on the Summit!

2020-03-03 21:06:19.000 – David DeCou, Weather Observer

 

 

Greetings from the Summit of Mount Washington!

My name is David DeCou, and I am the new Night Observer in training here at the Observatory. I originally grew up in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and spent the last few months of my life working in Antarctica at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station as a Weather Observer. It has been an exciting week of many firsts for me, and I don’t think anything could have prepared me for my amazing experiences here during my first time on the Summit.

On Wednesday, it was my first time taking a ride in a snowcat, my first time ascending the Auto Road, and my first day in the clouds at the Observatory. As I joined the crew during my first ascent (I was lucky enough to ride in the front!), I was in a constant state of amazement, despite the view being cut short by a wall of cloud that seemed to follow us the entire way. It took some days before I had my first real view from the summit. While visibility was low, conditions were relatively calm the day I arrived. This was not the case the following day.

Surreal sci-fi-esque landscape as a cloud drifts through.
Conditions on the Summit can change quickly from being in the clear to being shrouded in passing fog. This was largely my view for my first couple of days here!

At the South Pole, while temperatures are extremely cold, actual weather conditions are pretty calm year round – the strongest winds I experienced there reached about 30 mph, but are 10-15 mph on average. On Thursday morning at Mount Washington Summit, I awoke to the sound of rattling, from sustained 100+ mph winds buffeting the building. Antarctica was nowhere near enough to prepare me for the winter weather at the Observatory. I went outside with Ian and Caleb, micro-spikes on our boots, to replace and collect the precipitation can for the morning synoptic observation. At that time, winds were around 115 mph from the East, and we received a maximum gust of 132 mph sometime that morning. The moment we left the front rotunda door, it was chaos. Every time my feet left the precious ground to take a step forward, the roaring winds punched my legs forward and into the air, while flinging countless shards of ice debris all around us. It felt like an endless stream of frozen paintballs, and there was the constant danger of being toppled over. There were brief moments where we had to brace ourselves during a strong gust and wait for an opening to continue moving. On our short (but difficult) journey back to the door, we had to move against the wind, with the added challenge of needing to keep the filled precip can upright. It was as fun as it was scary. Count 100+ mph winds as another first for me (on only day 2)!!

During my first week, I’ve had a wonderful time working with and getting to know Ian, Jay, and Caleb, as well as our two fantastic volunteers this week, Sue and Sandra (thank you for all the wonderful food!!!). I have begun to learn the daily routine, shadowing Ian and Caleb for observations, daily checks, forecasts, and various tasks like de-icing the instruments on the Observatory tower, where rime ice accumulates frequently during winter weather.

Rime ice built up on the Observatory tower during an unexpected spell of clear skies on Tuesday.
 
We were in the clouds until Sunday, where I got to enjoy not only my first gorgeous views from the Summit, but also my very first sunset. With undercast skies to the West, it was both the most beautiful yet least relaxing sunset I have ever experienced. The incredible view was absolutely worth being buffeted by strong NW winds on the tower parapet.
 
 
West view from the observation deck on my first clear day at the Observatory! It may not look it, but the powerful unobstructed NW winds made it very difficult to take this photo.
 

 Undercast skies to the West made my first-ever sunset at the Observatory an unforgettable one. It was well worth the wind chill on the tower!

I feel lucky for the opportunity to be here and can’t wait to experience everything Mount Washington Summit has to offer as I continue to train as an Observer here at the Home of the World’s Worst Weather. A huge thank you to Ian, Jay, and Caleb for being patient, orienting me with the Observatory, and for continuing to show me the ropes! Another huge thank you to Sue and Sandra for the amazing cooking and help this week!
 
 Northeast-facing windows of the Observatory rotunda on the first clear day of this shift.

 

 

David DeCou, Weather Observer

Why the East Wind Busted my Forecast and The Reason for the Rapid East to West Wind Shift for Thursday’s Low

Why the East Wind Busted my Forecast and The Reason for the Rapid East to West Wind Shift for Thursday’s Low

2020-03-02 17:29:10.000 – Caleb Buchler, Summit Intern

 

Our shift started off with winds less than five mph! I found it hard to believe the next day we would be experiencing gusts around the century mark. Mount Washington made me forget how quickly it can change its mood. On Wednesday, while creating my forecast with our new observer Dave, I explained to him that strong winds out of the East are often gustier than our predominant winds from the Northwest and West. This is essentially due to a steeper topography to our East as Ian had explained on my first shift. I had never actually experienced a powerful East wind on the summit before. This would explain why my forecast for winds was a bust on Thursday morning! After looking at Model Output Statistics for the NAM and GFS products for projected winds along with a long analysis of different models, I determined it was safe to go higher than the models and predict 60 to 80 mph with gusts up to 100 mph. A part of me was saying that I should have raised the potential gusts to 110 mph, but I was hesitant to get too aggressive on a forecast I was not familiar with. Either way I determined my forecast was going to be a good indication with winds, snow, and visibility that it would be very unsafe to visit the summit.

When Thursday morning came around and I was grabbing my morning coffee, I saw our home page in the living quarters registering average wind speeds around 90 mph! Once I was up in the weather room, we felt the building tremble from a big gust. The Hay’s chart spiked and our pitot tubes registered a gust of 132 mph around 6:30am! Forecast busted. At that moment, I truly understood why Easterly winds are so challenging to predict. I will take this lesson with me for the next time we expect strong East winds and I am forecasting.

 
Archived 2/27/2020 7am Surface Map of the US from the Weather Prediction Center. A white arrow is indicated to show Southeasterly flow off the coast wrapping around the center of the low.

This brings me to understanding why those East winds suddenly shifted to West on Thursday. First, I think it is important to note that this winter has seen unusual storm tracks with the center of most low pressure systems staying to our West. The storm tracks are driven by the jet stream which has not experienced many deep troughs positioned to our East over the Atlantic. Because of this, we have not had as many classic Nor’easters developing off the Mid-Atlantic dumping, mainly snow on the Northeast. Low pressures are known to have winds sucked towards their center in a counter-clockwise manner. With this system rapidly intensifying as it headed straight North from the Great Lakes, we were on the warm, Eastern portion of the storm. On the East side of these lows, the airflow pattern brings warm coastal moisture into the Whites (just like this one). That is why temperatures were above average with lower elevations receiving plenty of rain and mixed precipitation. The summits were in the mid-20s with a heavy wet snow, dumping 9.5 inches of snow on Thursday alone. This was the same time when we experienced a gust of 132 mph.

 
 Archived 2/27/2020 7am 850mb map of the US from NOAA.  The blue arrow indicates easterly winds wrapping around the center of the low pressure while it is still to our Southwest.  850mb is just below the summit in elevation.  It is a good visual of all that warm coastal moisture being sucked in.
 
 Archived 2/27/2020 7pm 850mb  map of the US from NOAA. The blue arrow indicates westerly winds wrapping around the center of the low pressure while it is now to our Northwest. 850mb is just below the summit in elevation. It is a good visual of cold air from Canada wrapping around and reaching New England from the West.

Why the wind switch though? We had winds drop below 10 mph early in the afternoon then quickly increase to 70 to 90 mph by that night. However, now they were out of the West! As I said earlier, the storm track kept the center of the low to our West as it took a track nearly due North. As the center of the low passed over us, winds calmed down significantly. Once it passed over and to our North, the winds went West. This brings us back to the concept of winds wrapping around a low pressure counterclockwise. We were now on the Southern portion of the system. Winds were now wrapping around the center, sucking cold air down from the North then to the West into New England. Temperatures dropped quickly as a completely different air mass was being pushed into the region. That is why we often see cold Northwest winds quickly follow on the backside of Nor’easters, especially on the coast.

Next time we have a deep low pressure hit the region, pay attention to that wind shift after the storm passes through! I only advise you not to be on Mount Washington for it!

 

Caleb Buchler, Summit Intern

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