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My First Few Days on the Summit

2018-08-25 16:34:05.000 – Chloe Boehm, Summit Intern

Hello! My name is Chloe Boehm and I am the new fall intern here on the summit! I am originally from Lexington, Massachusetts but I spent the last 4 years in Maine at Colby College studying Physics and Mathematical Sciences. I am lucky to have grown up hiking and exploring in New England and especially in the White Mountains. Through this I experienced a taste of the wild weather in these mountains, from high winds to snow storms that seem to come out of nowhere. Seeing these weather events is what really sparked my interest in weather and meteorology. As my college did not offer courses in meteorology, I took the opportunity when I went abroad to New Zealand to take an Environmental Physics class which gave me my first academic introduction to the world of meteorology. Since that and learning about the Mount Washington internship, it has been a dream of mine to learn more about forecasting on top of one of my favorite places in the world. Needless to say, I am very excited to begin my internship this fall.

My first day on the mountain started off with a bang with pouring rain in the valley and 60 mph winds atop the summit. Spending parts of that first day walking around the summit and almost getting blown over was definitely a highlight. The next couple days provided some clearer weather and warm temperatures which offered me the chance to really take in the surrounding views and see a totally different version of the summit. One interesting phenomenon that accompanied the clear weather was quite a bit of smoke blown in from wildfires in the Western U.S. and Canada. This smoke covered the mountains in a blanket of haze and turned visibility from 90 miles to only 5-10 miles. I have never experienced such large amounts of haze from smoke and it was really incredible to see smoke from all the way across the country effect the mountains in the Northeast.

Below I have included two pictures I took of the southern Presidentials, the first one on Thursday and the second on Friday. These two pictures give a good visual representation of how much the scenery changed once the haze from the wildfires enveloped the mountains.

Clear picture of southern Presidentials

Hazy picture of southern Presidentials

Getting to know the observers and the rest of the staff has also been great! They are all really friendly and knowledgeable and I really appreciate them taking the time to answer all of my questions. The accommodations atop the summit are quite cozy considering the location. I have also gotten the opportunity to explore the area surrounding the summit a little bit in the afternoons going on short hikes or walks. I will leave you today with a picture of the sunset from Friday night. Although the haze prevented us from seeing the sun dip below the horizon it did add some nice colors to the sky.

Chloe Boehm, Summit Intern

The Air is Different Up Here

2018-08-23 15:30:21.000 – Eric P. Kelsey, Ph.D., Director of Research

If you have been to the summit of Mount Washington, you likely noticed that the air was different than in the valleys: the temperature was cooler, you may have been in a cloud, and you may have noticed with your eyes and olfactory that the air was more or less hazy and polluted. If you thought that you were in a different air mass than in the valleys, you were probably right.

For many decades, we have known that the summit of Mount Washington spends roughly half of the year in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the boundary layer, and the rest of the time in the free atmosphere or the transition zone between these two layers called the entrainment zone. Victor Conrad, a Harvard University scientist, first estimated this indirectly in 1941 when he examined the time of day that the daily maximum and minimum temperatures occurred. When the summit air temperature peaked during the afternoon and is lowest at night like it typically does in the lower elevations, the summit is likely in the boundary layer along with everyone else in the region. When the maximum and minimum temperatures occur at other times of the day, there is an increased likelihood that the summit is in the free troposphere where horizontal changes in air temperature have a bigger influence on the timing and values of the maximum and minimum temperature. Using Conrad’s methods, Grant et al. (2005) ran this analysis with more recent data and concluded similar results: the summit is dominated by boundary layer processes 30% of the time and by the free troposphere 50% of the time (and inconclusive the other 20% of the time).

Schematic of the daily evolution of the boundary layer under clear skies.

Because the summit is subject to different air masses and atmospheric processes than the lower elevations roughly 50% of the time, it mak

es sense that this could be contributing to the slower warming rate at the summit than the lower elevations. Furthermore, the elevational difference in warming rates is greatest in the fall and winter when the summit is more frequently exposed to the free troposphere. These observations motivate the current MWO research on boundary layer processes and height changes. In August and September 2016, a field campaign occurred to better understand the processes dominating changes in the height of the boundary layer and the resulting types of air masses along the slopes of Mount Washington link to MWO project webpage: here. MWO Director of Research Eric Kelsey, Adriana Bailey (then at Dartmouth College, now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research), and Georgia Murray (Appalachian Mountain Club) led this field campaign largely funded by Plymouth State University with contributions from AMC, Dartmouth and Heidi Asbjornsen at UNH.

Their findings have just been published in the open-access online journal Atmosphere (link to manuscript page here). The article focuses on a one-day intensive observation campaign on 19 August 2016 during which several interesting atmospheric processes were captured with MWO summit and mesonet observations (link to our mesonet page here), weather balloons launched from the base of the Auto Road, and vertical profiles of stable isotopes of water vapor and meteorological variables. We observed large scale subsidence from a high pressure system depressing the boundary layer height while sunshine was developing warm thermals that rose from the valleys to deepen the boundary layer. Observations above treeline caught this battle between these and other processes and has helped advance our understanding of how the boundary layer behaves around a mountain. These results are also guiding our approach for future research on this topic, including the processes we want to observe and the types of new instrumentation we need to observe them. In the near future, we aim to develop a statistical model based on summit weather observations and large-scale weather pattern that predicts the type of air mass at the summit. From this we will be able to reconstruct the summit air mass type going back to 1935 and understand how this variability in air masses at the summit impacts the long term slower warming trend at the summit.

PSU meteorology students prepare a weather balloon for launch near the Mount Washington Auto Road base.

Eric P. Kelsey, Ph.D., Director of Research

Goodbye MWObs!

2018-08-22 08:05:13.000 – Emily Tunkel, Summer Intern

Goodbye MWObs!

Well, it certainly has been a fantastic six week internship here on top of Mount Washington, but I unfortunately need to get back to college. Overall, this internship has been a once-in-a-lifetime experience, in more ways than one; my university doesn’t have any degrees or courses in meteorology or atmospheric sciences, so I never got to be introduced to the amazing science behind the weather that we see every day.

I didn’t know when starting here how invested I could become in the weather. Looking outside to see cap clouds or faraway mountains poking up in a sea of morning fog – it’s just amazing. I really have no other words. I had never seen a mountain before (much less been on top of one) I came to MWO. Little things would amaze me; the stars at night, getting to see the Milky Way for the first time, watching clouds roll by, talking to thru-hikers who were completing the AT, looking at radar images, finding butterflies and flying squirrels on the summit, and much much more.

Pictured, from left to right: Emily, Adam, Chris, Ben, Ian, Zach, and Tessa

While getting to experience the weather was fantastic, I think my favorite part of this internship was all of the people. Not just the other interns, but the weather observers, our museum attendant, our lovely volunteers, the employees at State Park, the people I met at the gift shop, all of the dogs, the people who would come on tours and come with me to the top of the tower even when they were scared, the dog who came with me to the top of the tower on a tour, Marty the cat, everybody in the museum who asked “so…what’s up with the cat?”, little kids who would get excited about weather, and kids who would very softly ask how old they needed to be to be an intern too.

I’ve learned a lot during my time at MWO; not just about the weather, but about myself too. I’m hopeful that I’ll get to come back to the mountain soon both for the weather and meteorology, but also for the great people here.

Emily Tunkel, Summer Intern

What are the Chances?

2018-08-21 17:31:40.000 – Adam Gill, Weather Observer/IT Specialist

Since we are known for very volatile weather, especially in winter, I was curious as to when the chances of seeing more extreme weather would start to become more likely. Summertime up here can get start to get quite boring to those of us who are extreme weather enthusiast since the frequency of strong storms are few and far between. At this time of the year, I am starting to look at long range models and climate models wishing for that first snow storm or first 100 mph wind event.

Below, I will go over some of the variables and take a look at when the more fun weather will begin. I am using all the data we have to make these probability graphs. I am going to start with temperatures. This first graph is looking at the chances of seeing temperatures get above 50°F. I chose 50 degrees because our warmest average temperature is 49°F and rounded up to 50. We have luckily passed the best chances to see 50 degrees and are dwindling every day. By early September, we will be down to a 50% chance of seeing 50 degrees and the fall season will quickly come upon the summit.

Now let’s take a look at the chances of falling below freezing! We have already reached a 10% chance of falling below freezing but given the forecast, we are more than several weeks from really having a chance at seeing consistent below freezing temperatures. This August has been very warm so it is difficult to imagine that we regularly get below freezing in August but we did last year on August 31^st when we got down to 27 degrees!

Now lets look at the probability of falling below 0! It is really cool to see how much of the year we have had at least one day in our history where we have fallen below 0°F.

Since I am a fan of snow, I cannot wait for there to be epic blizzards once again and to be able to spend my off weeks getting out snowshoeing or skiing. Below is the probability of seeing accumulating snow on any day. This means that there has to be at least 0.1 inches of snow to fall in the 24 hour period, trace amounts were removed.

It is quite interesting how the probability of seeing accumulating snow plateaus at around a 60% chance from late November to early April.

Now we will move on to wind! It has been several shifts since I have even seen a hurricane force wind gust and I am ready to be able to experience those higher winds again! I will first look at the odds of exceeding 65 knots (74 mph), which is the threshold for a category 1 hurricane. Unfortunately with a slightly different way we store the dates in our peak wind database, I did not have the time to auto add the months at the bottom so it is plotted in the day of the year rather than month.

Below are the odds of exceeding 100 mph on any given day. Seeing up to a 30% chance in January is pretty incredible.

Adam Gill, Weather Observer/IT Specialist

What’s It Like Being A Night Observer?

2018-08-20 05:31:34.000 – Christopher Hohman, Staff Meteorologist/Observer

One of the most common questions I’ve been asked since taking this job is, “What’s it like working nights?” The answer to that question is rather multi-layered. There’s tons of stuff the night observer is responsible for while they’re on shift, that the day observers don’t normally do, if ever! There’s also a lot of social aspects that are different about it too. I talk about all of it below.

(My typical view walking out of the tower to do an observation)

To start out, I’ll discuss some of the actual procedures I get to do that the day shift doesn’t. One of our most famous graphs here on the summits is our Hays Chart. We change this chart out once every 24-hours. The exact time we switch them is 12:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, so the night observer is the lucky one who gets to swap out the chart. We then have to fill out additional information on it — averages wind speeds/directions every hour, and the peak wind information. Here’s a picture of a blank graph, and a completed one:

Night observers get the pleasure of taking all 12 observations during their 12 hour shift (Day observes split them and take 6 each). This means we get to do 2 synoptic observations. We have to go outside and collect the precipitation can (pictured below) during the Ob as well as record the Maximum/Minimum Temp, Pressure, 10-min/2-min Wind speed/direction, present weather, etc. This is a typical sight for me as I’m walking out to collect the can. Well… normally with a lot more fog around it:

One of the biggest difference is the amount of people in the building. During the day we have a bustling Sherman Adams building full of hikers and/or people who drove up the auto road. We’re giving tours, going out to take Obs with people on the deck, and communicating with the public. During the night though, it’s kind of just me alone in the Observatory (of course unless an intern decides to do a night with me from time to time). So it’s a lot quieter, and I’d say much more peaceful during the night. I get to play music, and do my work in solidarity. It can be tons of fun and allow me to focus better.

Another question I get is how I adjust from day to night when I start my shift. I don’t keep the night time schedule on my off week, so it takes some time to get myself back into nights when I come up. I’d say I’m completely readjusted by around Friday night. I actually haven’t had a single cup of coffee since I’ve started working, and I hope to keep it that way into the winter! Strange enough though, I also feel more rested when I’m working nights. My body is on a strict schedule of going to bed at 6:30 a.m. and waking up at 3:15 p.m. everyday. Our bodies love having schedules, so I honestly don’t feel tired at all for the rest of my time on the summit. When I’m back home though, I don’t quite follow a strict schedule, so I normally feel more tired at home than when I’m on the summit!

Seeing all the sunrises and sunsets is a joy as well. It’s one of my favorite parts of the job. I’ve loved being the night observer up even more than I thought I would. If you have anymore questions about what I do, or what it’s like up here, please don’t hesitate to message the observatory! I hope you’ve enjoyed this blog, see you guys in a few weeks with another one!

Christopher Hohman, Staff Meteorologist/Observer

My summer at 800 mb

2018-08-16 09:33:01.000 – Simon Wachholz, Summit Intern

In a typical year I would be excited for the end of summer. The cooler temperatures of fall and the first snowflakes of winter are something I look forward to every year. Unfortunately, the end of this summer indicates the end of my time at Mount Washington as a summer intern. Since today is my last day at the summit, I thought I’d write a quick wrap up of all the exciting events I had the opportunity to experience here. Every week seemed to bring a new adventure and unique phenomenon I wouldn’t be able to witness anywhere else.

Week 1: May 16-23

In my first higher summits forecast I predicted maximum wind gusts up to 95 mph. The actual peak wind gust was 92 mph on May 19 ^th. I unfortunately wasn’t outside in it since it occurred overnight, but the sustained winds in the 50s earlier in the day were still the strongest winds I ever experienced. Add rain pelting your face and 40 degree temperatures, and you end up with pretty extreme conditions for May.

Week 2: May 30 – June 6

When I first looked at the forecast for Mount Washington May 30 ^th, I was cautiously optimistic – MOS was showing temperatures around freezing with lots of precipitation for June 4 ^th and 5 ^th. I didn’t want to get my hopes up too much; after all, it was June and I know from past experience that even in the dead of winter getting excited for model forecasts 5 days out often leads to disappointment. However, as each day passed, the forecast stayed consistent: freezing rain, sleet, and snow were indeed looking likely for the higher summits. On the morning of the 4 ^th temperatures dropped into the 20s with heavy freezing rain. Around ½ an inch of ice accrued on exposed surfaces making it one of the largest ice storms I’ve experienced in my life. On Tuesday June 5 ^th, I witnessed my first June snowfall with 0.8” of snow accumulating. I mentioned this in a previous blog, and I will continue to mention it for the rest of my life: I made a snowman in June.

Week 3: June 13-20

Week 3 was my windiest week on the summit with winds averaging 34.3 mph (about 7mph faster than average for the month of June). The 19 ^th featured a couple gusts of 94 mph; the strongest gusts I was outside in. It’s hard to describe how difficult it is to walk when gusts are that strong, and I can only imagine what it was like to experience the 231 mph winds observers recorded here in 1934.

Week 4: June 27- July 4

This was the week of record heat across the Northeast with highs in the 90s throughout much of New Hampshire. The higher elevations in the White Mountains had record highs too; however, temperatures only rose into the lower 70s. With all this heat I was fearful the remaining snow on Mount Jefferson and Tuckerman Ravine would melt off, but fortunately both piles survived into July. Even some news outlets were fascinated with the remaining snow. The Boston Globe published an article about the remaining snow, and my snowman from early June even got some fame on The Concord Monitor. In fact, for a little while if you googled the word “snow” and looked at the news results, the White Mountain snow were 3 of the first 5 news stories.

Last picture of snow I took in Tuckerman Ravine (July 15th)

Week 5: July 11-18

Having the “world’s worst weather” on a daily basis at Mount Washington acts like a magnet for other weather enthusiasts and meteorologists. I even had the opportunity to give Tom Niziol from the Weather Channel a tour of the observatory, and afterwards he asked me to take a picture with him. I tried, with little success, to contain my excitement, as evidenced below.

Week 6: July 25- August 1

Week 6 started off pretty amazing with a stunning rainbow coming up the Autoroad. I didn’t see any gold at the end of this rainbow, but being at the summit of Mount Washington is worth far more than any pot of gold. Otherwise, week 6 was a very busy week on the summit, and it felt like the week lasted forever (which fellow intern Sarah and I were happy about because neither of us wanted our internships to end).

Week 7: August 8-15

Although we’re a weather observatory, Mount Washington is a pretty good place for star gazing as well, as long as we’re in the clear. With the earliest sunsets of my internship this week, I finally got a chance to go outside and view the night sky and watch for meteor showers. Northern New Hampshire has substantially less light pollution than anywhere in Pennsylvania (where I’m from), and it’s truly amazing how well you can see stars and the Milky Way, even with the naked eye. Although I’ve seen a couple shooting stars before, this week was the first time I practiced my astrophotography. I took hundreds of pictures of the stars (which is surprisingly time consuming with long exposures), and I even got some shooting stars in a couple images.

The Milky Way with a shooting star in the lower left

Then, the sunset Saturday was probably the best sunset of the summer with plenty of mid-level clouds creating lots of contrasting colors.

Sunset August 11th

This was definitely the most rewarding summer I’ve ever had, and I couldn’t have asked for a better internship or group of people to spend it with. Next week I’ll be starting my senior year at Penn State and will hopefully graduate with my degree in Meteorology next spring. Although today is my last day at the summit, I know I’ll be back again one way or another, but hopefully next time will feature even more snow!

Sarah literally dragging me off of the summit

Simon Wachholz, Summit Intern

Road-Trippin’ Through the Seasons

2018-08-15 06:55:18.000 – Taylor Regan, Weather Observer and Research Specialist

Over the river and through the woods, to my summit house I go! It’s the melody that hangs in the ether each week as the upgoing shift amasses at the base of the Mount Washington Auto Road, preparing for their ascent to the place where they simultaneously work and live.

It’s quite a sight, if I’m honest, to happen upon a shift change. One by one summit staff navigate through the parking lot in the near pre-dawn hours of morning, small pieces of gravel (and sometimes mud) spit up by sleepy tires, pinging softly on the underside of overladen vehicles like bubbles in a newly opened soda can. Cars shudder to a halt and near-audibly sigh, as they are efficiently emptied of a week’s worth of gear, equipment, people, and groceries. Then, it is the Obs vehicle’s chance to groan as, in a Tetris-worthy feat, a half dozen large duffle bags are expertly wedged into the back and, like a sundae, topped with all manner of accoutrement from groceries, to museum store product, to tools and test equipment, to finally, the staff themselves.

On any given shift change, the whole process is reminiscent of long road trips I took as a child, when we would pre-pack the car the night before, and stumble sleepily into our seats in the dim-light just prior to sunrise, to embark on our journey. Shift change is not much different, as we load ourselves into vehicles in preparation for the 7.4-mile journey to our summit home.

Not even 8 miles! You might balk. Why, that’s no road trip!

As a relatively experienced road tripper myself, I would oft tend to agree. Why, Travis Pastrana covered that distance in a mere 5 minutes 44 seconds! That’s hardly enough time to take a sip of coffee!

Figure 1. Travis Pastrana breaking the record for fastest ascent up the Auto Road during the Climb to the Clouds rally event, in 2017 in 5 min and 44 seconds.

Again, I agree.

The difference comes, however, when the mountain dons it’s winter coat and erases any notion of a road from the craggy mountainside. It is at that point that our wheeled-vehicles cease to gain purchase on the snow coated mountain pass, and we are forced to unleash…the snowcat.

The natural habitat of this tracked behemoth is the gentle ski slope of a mountain resort where it spends its nights grooming corduroy into the freshly fallen snow. With a top speed of 8 miles an hour the snowcat certainly wasn’t built for speed, and it shows as we inch our way up what passes for the auto road … when it’s buried by ten to twenty feet of snow.

Throw in the weather that Mt. Washington is famous for: hurricane-force winds, a summit almost continuously shrouded in freezing fog, and nearly 300 inches of snowfall annually, and suddenly 8 mph becomes more of a dream and less of a reality. A drive that normally comes in under a half hour in the summer grinds to a nearly imperceptible crawl in the winter months, with one way ventures clocking in at upwards of 8 hours.

And that, my friends, starts to enter road trip territory.

Figure 2. Leading the Snowcat through whiteout conditions.
Figure 3. Going snow-where fast. Hairpin where-pin?

Where am I going with this? With the summer internship coming to a close, summit staff was gathered around the dinner table the other night after a very delicious and very filling meal, and musing on the coming season. As we were discussing the huge disparity in transit times between summer and winter months, we began to dwell on the niceties that would make the occasional 8-hour slog more pleasant (some would say bearable).

We all agreed that a convenience store along the way would provide a nice opportunity to stretch the legs and refuel (both vehicle and body), which led to the debate on road trip snacks. It’s one of those things that you don’t realize you’re particular about, but when someone asks, the answer is on the tip of your tongue faster than when someone asks your middle name. A lot goes in to a road trip snack: it might not always be your favorite, but its dependable. You’ve got to know you can find it at just about any gas station or convenience store, and so it’s something you can count on, even as you transcend borders.

Seriously, I bet you’re now thinking about your go-to road-trip sustenance. Are you not?

Figure 4. We made it! … now for the return trip.

Want to take a guess at my shift’s go-to road trip snacks??? Here they are!

Ryan: Peanut Butter M&Ms and Chocolate Milk

Tom: Pepperoni Pizza Combos and Orange Gatorade

Taylor: Bugles and Coca-Cola

Sarah S: Pringles and Yoo-Hoo

Sarah T: Cheddar Chex-Mix and Water

Griffin: White Cheddar Cheez-its and Lemon Sparkling Water

Simon: Goldfish and Water

And just like that, it’s Wednesday again, except this time we’re heading down from the summit. For two of our interns, it is their last down-going shift change, as their summer on the summit comes to a close. To all of our interns this summer, and on behalf of my shift, I say, thanks so much for all of your hard work this summer, for your enthusiasm, and for all of the laughs.

Bon Voyage and Bon Appetit!

Taylor Regan, Weather Observer and Research Specialist

Don’t Make Me Leave!

2018-08-13 15:00:17.000 – Sarah Thunberg, Summit Intern

I’ve dreamed of working up here on Mount Washington my whole life. Now that I’ve been able to live up here, I don’t want to leave! Please don’t make me go! One of my first days on the summit was beautiful and clear, the building wasn’t open to the public yet so it was nice and quiet. I started off my internship taking the classic picture at the summit sign.

Sarahs first day on the summit with
sign

My first morning on the summit

Not soon after I started on the mountain, I got my first view of lenticulars spread over the northern Presidentials. The winds that day were about 40 mph, something I didn’t realize would become rare later on in the summer. Most days were light and variable until this last week when the summit got back up to 74 mph.

Lenticulars over the Northern Presidentials

The summit is in the clouds 60 percent of the time, but sometimes it briefly clears and reveals some amazing atmospheric phenomenon like thunderstorms, or rainbows.

Thunderstorm over Franconia Notch

Intern Sarah with double rainbow at
shift change looking into Great Gulf

Double rainbow on shift change

However, nothing compares to crystal clear skies and temperatures in the upper 40s.

A view to the south with a visibility of 130 miles

My last week on the summit was bittersweet. The weather had a nice return to the beginning of summer conditions with high winds, cooler temperatures, and clear skies returning to the summit. It was a nice reminder of where I’ve been over the summer and what I’ve seen. I’ve been waiting to be up here my whole life, but I also miss everyone back in Illinois and want to go back. As hard as it is, I have to go finish my degree, and then I can come back. I’m already making plans to come back and volunteer next summer. I thought it would be good to leave as I came, so goodbye, I’ll be back someday.

Intern sarahs last week on the summit
standing by the summit sign

My last week on the summit

Sarah Thunberg, Summit Intern

Looking Ahead to Fall

2018-08-12 15:23:23.000 – Griffin Mooers, Summit Intern

As summit observer Adam Gill has previously discussed, summer has been uncharacteristically hot for the summit of Mount Washington, with this past July ranking as the second warmest of all time, with an average temperature a toasty 53.1 degrees Fahrenheit.

Total Precipitation for northeast US
July 2018

Source: http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu

The summer also started out unusually dry. However, frequent showers in the last couple of weeks in favorable peaks helped the White Mountains catch up to an above normal total precipitation for July. But the Northeast as a whole has been unusually dry. Much of New Hampshire, and New England more broadly are still in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

But what does this coming fall hold for Mount Washington, and the northeast more broadly? While predicting the exact weather conditions months in advance is impossible (making a 48 hour higher summits forecast is already challenging), our understanding of inter-annual oscillations and teleconnections allows meteorologists to say in broad strokes what the year ahead may bring.

Map from noaa.gov depicting the effects of a typical El Nino on the U.S. weather pattern

El Nino is characterized by especially weak east to west winds over the pacific that allow for warm water to flow from west pacific to South America. While we have spent much of the past year La Nina conditions (the reverse of El Nino), the Climate Prediction Center believes we have at least a 60% chance of entering into an El Nino phase by Fall, and an even higher chance by winter. Although far from the only factor in determining dominant weather conditions, it can have a large impact on the continental U.S., generally leading to cold, damp winters in the far south, and milder, drier conditions elsewhere. This prediction of an El Nino is reflected in NOAA’s extended temperature and precipitation outlooks for the continental United States.

The climate prediction centers 1 month outlooks for temperature and precipitation. You can see the anomalies match very closely with the predicted effects of an El Nino event on the U.S.

So while it looks like there will not be an unusually high amount of rain to beat back the dry conditions, the drought is also not expected to worsen significantly into the fall. The likelihood of an El Nino event should keep the polar jet unusually far north, indicating a chance for a milder than usual fall and winter season. However, it should be noted that each El Nino is different, and the intensity of the El Nino event itself can have an impact on the resulting conditions, so the long term outlook is subject to change as fall approaches.

Griffin Mooers, Summit Intern

Quiet Hurricane Season on the Horizon?

2018-08-10 16:35:16.000 – Tom Padham, Weather Observer/Education Specialist

With the month of August underway we’re heading into the peak of hurricane season, but it’s looking more likely that this year will overall be a down year for tropical systems (not a bad thing necessarily!). So what’s the reasoning for this? NOAA recently updated their seasonal outlook for the tropics (article here) explaining some of their reasoning.

A few of the reasons include already being slightly below average for this point in the season, below average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, and a predicted formation of El Nino conditions by the fall.

How typical El Nino conditions alter weather patterns across the tropics. Image courtesy of NOAA

In addition to this, dust from the Saharan Desert has been pretty extensive in the mid levels of the atmosphere reaching from west Africa all the way into the Gulf of Mexico at times. This has acted to suppress convection (thunderstorms) needed for the development and organization of tropical systems. This happens somewhat frequently during the summer and fall each year, this year has just been more active than most and is adding to the other factors above.

Saharan dust as seen from space off the west coast of Africa in 2008. Image courtesy of NASA.

Even with the prospect of a more quiet remainder of the hurricane season, we shouldn’t let our guard down as a single land falling storm can cause catastrophic damage. In the event of any sort of emergency, be it from mother nature or otherwise, it’s always important to have a plan. https://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan is a great resource for putting together a plan and emergency kit.

Tom Padham, Weather Observer/Education Specialist

August 2018

My First Few Days on the Summit

The Air is Different Up Here

Goodbye MWObs!

What are the Chances?

What’s It Like Being A Night Observer?

My summer at 800 mb

Road-Trippin’ Through the Seasons

Don’t Make Me Leave!

Looking Ahead to Fall

Quiet Hurricane Season on the Horizon?